US President Barack Obama marks his first year in office today. The Straits Times US Bureau looks back at his dramatic opening act in the White House.
WASHINGTON: The battered US financial system has been rescued from a disastrous meltdown, the country's international image has vastly improved, and historic health-care reforms are close to getting passed.
In less troubled times, President Barack Obama would have been celebrated for notching these notable achievements in his first year in office. But with a 10 per cent unemployment rate fanning the flames of an increasingly bitter and partisan political climate, ordinary Americans have been little inclined to give him or his administration much credit.
Mr Obama is in fact struggling with one of the lowest first-year approval ratings on record, performing just slightly better than 40th president Ronald Reagan's 49 per cent rating, the lowest among modern-day presidents.
Conservative critics on the right castigate Mr Obama for taking the United States down the ruinous path of socialism. Those on the left, however, are upset with his readiness to compromise on key priorities on the liberal agenda.
Independent voters, meanwhile, are increasingly buying into a central argument by Mr Obama's political foes: Why focus so much attention on health-care reforms when people are more concerned about jobs?
Mr Obama has tried to stay above the fray, but analysts say this populist backlash could potentially deal a major blow to his Democratic Party at the upcoming legislative elections in November.
Analysts are already pointing to the special one-off Senate race in Massachusetts, where voting began yesterday amid widespread talk of an upset Republican victory in a traditional Democratic stronghold, as a sign of things to come.
Current estimates suggest that the Democrats could lose up to 25 seats in the House of Representatives, and another five seats in the Senate.
This would not affect the Democrats' majorities in the two legislative chambers, but would considerably weaken Mr Obama's ability to push forward with new legislation given the opposition Republicans' near-unanimous objection to his initiatives.
The international impact from a weakened presidency is debatable, but it is likely that progress on key global issues like trade and climate change will become more difficult than ever.
In explaining one of the key lessons behind Mr Obama's election victory in 2008, his campaign manager David Plouffe wrote: 'Everything in the campaign flowed through the prism of strategy... Once a course has been set, he is determined not to let a chorus of critics alter the game plan.'
Mr Plouffe might as well be describing Mr Obama's first year in the White House. The President stuck religiously to his ambitious agenda - from rolling back unpopular Bush-era policies to introducing difficult health-care reforms - despite warnings that he would be overwhelmed by the recession and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
'In contemporary American politics, whatever you get done you have to do it in the first year or else you don't get it done,' said Professor David Brady, a political science expert at Stanford University.
Right strategy, poor tactics
MR OBAMA'S success in advancing health-care reforms - a key campaign promise - further than any other US president in recent memory seems to vindicate this approach.
But many commentators question if the President has become a prisoner to the success formula of his campaign, and thus underestimated how messy and difficult the business of governing can be.
By sticking to a 'big bang' approach for the first year, he has produced a considerable trail of missed deadlines and unfulfilled pledges, the most glaring being his failure to close the Guantanamo Bay military detention camp within a year as promised.
His administration is also perceived as having moved too slowly against Wall Street excesses, announcing a new tax on the banks only last week as executives were about to be awarded huge bonuses.
Critics say these unfulfilled and broken promises could yet return to haunt Mr Obama during his re-election bid in 2012. Others contend that he should have been more flexible, adding that his approval ratings and the political fortunes of the Democrats would not have suffered so badly had they focused more on the economy and job creation instead of health-care legislation.
Experts, however, disagree with this prognosis and say a less ambitious agenda would not significantly change the political outlook for Mr Obama.
Professor Bruce Buchanan of the University of Texas said: 'My guess is that Obama might have been better off by a few points in the polls in the short run concentrating on the economy, but in the long run, his chance to leave a mark as president is greatly enhanced by pushing health care.
'If that passes in Congress, he'll have the kind of achievement that will earn him a spot in the history books.'
It will take a few more years to tell if Mr Obama's opening gambit has been the right one. But what is evident now is that he and his team have often faltered at the execution phase, appearing to lack the tactics and killer instincts to finish the job.
During the discussion on health care last August, for instance, the White House allowed the public debate to spiral into bizarre shouting matches about 'death panels'.
Mr Obama has also failed to rally public support behind the reforms, with repeated polls showing lukewarm reception to the proposed health-care changes.
The result is that the biggest achievement of his first year in office may fail to resonate with ordinary Americans.
The limits of strategy
ON THE international front, experts generally applaud Mr Obama for getting the 'big picture' right. But they similarly question if his administration has the right tactics and enough resources to carry out its grand strategy.
The agenda is a daunting one: reach out to the Muslim world, reset strategic relations with major powers, resolve the Middle-East conflict, and finally succeed in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Many of these goals are long-term ones and no one expects quick results. But the war in Afghanistan, where Mr Obama has ordered an increase in troop levels of about 30,000, represents a major wild card for his young presidency.
Many foreign policy experts consider the fighting in Afghanistan to be unwinnable and fear that the US would be dragged down by another Vietnam War-like quagmire.
The Obama administration has brushed off such comparisons as convenient political attacks, arguing that its decision on Afghanistan is based on careful analysis and the right strategy.
But the main lesson from the Vietnam War is precisely that the best and brightest minds in the government are capable of making disastrously wrong decisions, diplomats acknowledge privately.
Unforeseen events can also trip up Mr Obama's grand plan, though he has been lucky on this front thus far. The recent Christmas Day plane bombing was averted due to sheer luck - the detonator failed to work.
But the political firestorm following the near-miss showed how quickly national security issues can hijack and overwhelm his agenda.
As it is, many Asian countries are already complaining about his administration's lack of focus on trade issues. The prospect of Congress passing any major new climate change legislation is also fading by the day, to say nothing of the international disappointment with the recent Copenhagen summit.
A successful terrorist strike would undoubtedly put these pressing issues even further down his 'to do' list.
So what should Mr Obama do in the tough years ahead?
'He just has to keep his head down and plug ahead because history teaches that the achievements he has notched will benefit him, although not necessarily in time for any particular election,' Prof Buchanan advised.
Hits and misses
Health-care reforms: Mr Obama has advanced legislation for health-care reforms further than any US president in recent decades. If passed, the Bill will be the most significant health-care legislation since the Medicare programme for the elderly was introduced 40 years ago.
Stabilised the financial sector: Wall Street was still in a tailspin when Mr Obama took office, with economists warning that a further meltdown could drag the US into another Great Depression. He resisted calls to nationalise the banks and stuck to a 'private-public' plan to rid the banks of the toxic assets. Wall Street is once again registering multi-billion-dollar profits.
Massive economic stimulus: Within a month of entering the White House, he signed a US$787 billion (S$1 trillion) economic stimulus Bill into law. The stimulus, aimed at jumpstarting the US economy and creating jobs, also helped restore global confidence.
Improved the international image of the US: Mr Obama wasted no time in reaching out to allies and rivals alike in his first year, putting diplomacy back at the forefront of US ties with other nations. For his efforts, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in October.
Guantanamo Bay detention centre: One of the first orders that Mr Obama signed was to close within a year the controversial military base where terror suspects were held during the Bush era. But he underestimated the political and diplomatic difficulties involved, and is unlikely to meet the deadline.
Ethics reform: The President has vowed to restrict former lobbyists from working in his administration, but the White House has in fact issued waivers to allow several of them to serve in senior positions in the government.
Climate change: Much of the world looked to Mr Obama, perhaps unrealistically, to provide leadership at the December climate change summit in Copenhagen. But he failed to deliver any breakthrough, while climate change-related legislation at home remains on the back burner.
Financial regulation: Mr Obama promised that Wall Street would not be allowed to take the same reckless risks that nearly crashed the system in 2008. Tougher financial regulation is making its way through Congress, but continues to take a back seat to health-care reforms.
Creating jobs: Although the economy has stabilised, the unemployment rate continues to hover at double-digit figures. Mr Obama has held job summits, and meetings with CEOs and business leaders, and could possibly pass a second stimulus aimed at job creation.
Reaching out to the Muslim world: Mr Obama made it a central goal of his foreign policy agenda to improve understanding between the US and Muslim countries. He delivered a major speech on this topic when he visited Turkey last April, but would need to do more to convince the worldwide Muslim community.
Afghanistan: His decision to escalate the war in Afghanistan and commit another 30,000 troops is probably the riskiest in his young presidency. With critics warning of a Vietnam War-like quagmire and the American public already weary of wars, public opinion could turn against Mr Obama rapidly if things go badly in Afghanistan.
Terrorism threat: By sheer luck, Mr Obama avoided a major national security crisis on Christmas Day when a would-be terrorist flying to Detroit botched an attempt to blow up the plane. The fallout from the incident illustrated how quickly terrorism and national security issues could overwhelm his agenda.
Anger and fervour in equal measure on 1st anniversary
Opera teacher Yvette Lewis at a party in her home in the town of Bowie, in Maryland, where she rallied support for President Obama's economic stimulus package. Laid-off worker Jeff Mitchell (left) and his lab partner with a wind turbine they had built -- ST PHOTO: BHAGYASHREE GAREKAR . PHOTO: JEFF MITCHELL
WASHINGTON: Mrs Nannette Johnson had lost her job and was on the verge of losing her home when President Barack Obama entered office. A year later, she is still unemployed and just a few thousand dollars away from foreclosure. What has unexpectedly deepened, along with her despair, is her fervour for Mr Obama.
Mr Jeff Mitchell is the mirror opposite. One of millions whose lives were shattered by the collapse of the auto industry, he spent the past year retraining for a green job.
Two days after Mr Obama marks his first year in office, he will be interviewed by a company looking for a wind turbine technician. He is hopeful of landing the job and yet highly dissatisfied with the Obama administration.
The sum total of the complex and seemingly irrational individual judgments being aired in factories and universities, bars and homes is the pronouncement that the year-old presidency has failed to live up to expectations.
The high 68 per cent job approval rating on Mr Obama's first day in the Oval Office has been reduced to 53 per cent at the end of his first year, according to the ABC/Washington Post poll. Other polls show similar figures.
The ratings downturn spurred Ms Yvette Lewis, an energetic opera teacher, to hatch her own blueprint for Mr Obama's comeback. Last February, she mobilised volunteers to press their local congressmen to support the President's economic stimulus when it threatened to come unstuck.
Last Sunday, she was meeting loyal Obama supporters in her suburban Maryland home to fashion a response to the 'Tea Party foolishness' that heralded the fall in Mr Obama's popularity.
In September last year, Ms Lewis was disheartened that the public had seemed to swallow even the dubious claims levelled by the host of rightist outfits like the Tea Party movement against Mr Obama's No. 1 domestic priority - health-care reforms.
She was doubly struck by the Democratic Party's slow rebuttals. Her answer was to create a team that would react within hours to 'distortions' in media reports, an effort which Mr Obama's Organising for America network quickly embraced.
'We need to make people understand that one man can't undo in a year what was destroyed over several years,' she says.
Such logic is beside the point for Mrs Johnson, who is among the 17 million Americans who stand to benefit from the Obama initiative to bail out homeowners whose mortgages cost more than their homes are worth.
Her problem is that lenders require her to have exhausted the last US$3,000 (S$4,200) in her retirement savings before they can modify her property loan. But that would wreck her credit rating and worsen her prospects of landing any job.
'Why am I being asked to ruin myself before the lenders will help me?' she says with an anger that she refuses to direct at Mr Obama. For the 52-year-old black woman, the history-making President can do no wrong.
On the other hand, Mr Mit-chell, 44, cannot shake off his conviction that the President's warped priorities led to the abysmal failing on the job front.
The Michigan native is a beneficiary of Mr Obama's green jobs drive. But he remains harsh in his judgment, saying: 'I had cast my vote for change but I'm done with him. I felt he put the middle class on hold while he pushed his own agenda. He should have tried harder to put people back to work. Health care could have waited.'
Obama to outline policy and budget plan
UNITED States President Barack Obama will deliver his first State of the Union address on Jan27 and his budget plan on Feb1, setting the tone for a second year in office marked by a long list of economic and foreign policy challenges.
In a televised speech to the American public, Mr Obama will have the chance to outline his policy priorities, from combating double-digit unemployment to overhauling health care, and trying to boost his sagging job approval ratings.
His performance could also lay the groundwork for his Democratic party's bid to keep control of Congress in the November mid-term elections.
The White House said on Monday that Mr Obama would give the address to a joint session of Congress, an annual rite of US politics, at 9pm on Jan27 (10am on Jan28 Singapore time).
NEW YORK TIMESSource: Straits Times, 20 Jan 2010.
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